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So, what about commons? This data is probably more important. It's no surprise these are all mythics (and one rare). What Cards Are We First Picking?įor this data, we are going to look at the cards that have an 'Average Taken At' rate of less than 1.5, means that more often than not, when it appears, it is taken as the first pick. This data is drawn from over 200,000 games played on Arena. Note that for this data set, I am going to be using Traditional Draft as a basis, as this has broader appeal for paper and MTGO users. So let's take a look at some interesting card facts. This is good information to have, but you also need to be careful analysing it so that you don't draw the wrong conclusions. With 17lands, we can also look at data for individual cards. Therefore, we can agree that in most cases, playing first is correct. In Traditional Draft this is higher, with the player going first winning just under 52% of the time. The data tells us that in Strixhaven Quick Draft, Premier Draft, and Sealed, the player going first wins a touch over 51% of the time. Unlike the winrates above - where the average is actually higher than 50% - the average for this data is, indeed, 50%. With the 17lands data, we can tell whether this is true or not. Most people agree it is usually better to be on the play.
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The take away here is that if you are drafting in paper or on MTGO, there is probably no clear worst colour pair. However this difference evaporates in Premier Draft and Traditional Draft, which are the two 'human drafts' on Arena. In Quick Draft and Sealed, it seems that Prismari is clearly worse than the other colours. Premier Draft: Lorehold 54.3%, Witherbloom 54.2%, Prismari 54.1%.Quick Draft: Witherbloom 55%, Lorehold 53.8%, Prismari 52.5%.Having established Silverquill as the strongest colour pair and Quandrix second, is there one colour pair that is clearly worse than the others? This is what the data tells us for each colour pair, and each format: Is Any Colour Pair Worse Than The Others? Although the lower winrate, this is not to say that splashing is never correct.
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Here is the average winrates of pure two colour decks in the various formats:Īnd here is the winrates for a two colour deck with a splash:īy splashing, you are shaving 1-2% off your winrate, which isn't heaps. Speaking of splashing, we can look at the data to see if splashing is worth our while. These winrates only look at 'pure' two-colour decks, without factoring in splashes, though splashing doesn't change the position of the decks in the pecking order. The only place this is not true is Sealed, where it drops to 3rd behind Lorehold, with 54.6% (0.3% below average). The Quick Draft winrate is 56.2% Premier Draft is 56.3%, Traditional Draft is 62.3%. There is also a clear second best colour pair: Quandrix. This makes it pretty clear that Silverquill is the colour pair to be in. Finally for Sealed, it is 58.6% (3.7% higher than average). In Traditional Draft, which will be of more interest to paper drafters and MTGO users, that winrate goes up to 63.6% (3.5% higher than average). In Premier Draft this is 58.8% (4% higher). In Quick Draft, it has a winrate of 60.8%: 5.3% above the average of all 17lands users. In every single format, there is one colour pair that wins at a higher rate than the others: Silverquill. The average winrate across the formats is: As you will see, the average winrate is higher than what you would think (50%) this means that people who have the tracker installed tend to be better than average players. Let's take a look at what we can learn.Ī quick note: it's useful to know what the average winrates of 17lands users is before we begin. 17lands breaks the data down into seperate entries for Quick Draft, Premier Draft, and Traditional Draft, as well as Sealed. One of the things we can look at in the data is which colour pairs are performing the best. All of the data presented here is correct as of time of writing (June 10, 2021). I thought it would be interesting - now that Strixhaven is getting on - to go through the data and see what we can learn about the format.
#Quick draft strixhaven install#
Magic Arena users install a piece of software called a tracker, that reports back to the website details of the draft, such as what colours were played, what order cards were picked in, etc. If not, read on!ġ7Lands is a website that takes the raw data from Magic Arena limited games and presents it in an easy to read format. If you are: great! Skip the next paragraph. You may or may not be aware of a website called.